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Picturesque Pebble can be a rocky road (AP)

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PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. (AP)—Henrik Stenson watched his ball bounce hard on the
left side of the tightly mowed 18th fairway, skip over the rough, off the cliff,
then onto the rocks down below.

A few moments later, he went to a place nobody wants to be when they start
keeping score later this week.

He picked his way down the rocks and seaweed, found a good place to stand
near the water 50 feet below, jumped and pirouetted a few times to miss the
lapping waves, then clanked a wedge back up and onto the grass.

Welcome to the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach—the toughest test in golf at one
of the most scenic settings in the world.

“I had to move away a couple times. Once, there were little pebbles around
the ball, another time, there was a pile of debris,” Stenson said. “But I got
a club on it. If I hit a ball down there when the tournament starts, I’d have to
consider going down there.”

Unlike most of the contenders in the 156-man field, Stenson will not have to
deal with pre-wired notions of what Pebble “should” play like, or “normally”
plays like. This is the Swede’s first time at the course that hosts the PGA
Tour’s star-studded pro-am each February, but becomes a much different beast
every 10 years or so when the national championship comes to town.

Balls that plugged into the fairway in February for Bing Crosby’s old
clambake hit hard and spin forward in June.

Shots that would have landed softly on the greens four months ago are now
vulnerable to careening off.

Rough that used to give way like butter is now four, five inches tall at
some points—something of a concession to the U.S. Open norm, actually, because
the greens at Pebble Beach are so uncompromisingly small.

“On a lot of these holes, you can hit a shot and be in the rough 5 feet
from the green and you’ll be lucky to be putting after your next shot,” Stenson
said.

K.J. Choi, a fourth-place finisher at this year’s Masters, spelled out a
goal that only sounds plausible at the U.S. Open.

“I’m going to try to get through four rounds, and finish each day at par,”
Choi said. “If I do that, that should be a pretty good score.”

The last time the U.S. Open was at Pebble, par didn’t stand a chance and
neither did anybody not named Tiger Woods. In 2000, he shot a record 12-under
par and won the tournament by 15—a performance that goes down as the most
dominating in the history of golf.

So much has changed, not only in the heavily detailed disorder of Woods’
personal life, but also in the finely planned details at Pebble Beach.

New bunkers have been added on Nos. 4 and 6 to tighten the landing areas.
New tees have been added to lengthen four holes, including Nos. 9 and 10, which
along with No. 8 run along the water and make up a stretch of possibly the three
most picturesque holes in golf.

There’s a chasm of ocean separating the fairway from the green on No. 8, and
the time the ball hangs over that gap is one of the longest, most harrowing few
seconds in golf.

“You stand there, you watch it, you wonder if it’s ever going to come
down,” said England’s James Morrison, who has the honor of playing his first
career major this week at Pebble, a place where the wind can kick up and change
the personality of almost any hole in an instant.

The most drastic change at the course that has charmed, befuddled and
immortalized everyone from Jack Nicklaus to Jack Lemmon were the two trees
planted in the middle-right of the fairway on the par-5 18th hole. They give
players the possibility of being completely blocked if they try to play too far
away from the left-hand side of the fairway. Hitting toward the left, of course,
is the best way to reach the green in two. But play it too far left and you
could wind up like Stenson—down among the fish.

It sets up the possibility of a big choice if someone comes to 18 on Sunday
needing a birdie, something that has never happened at the U.S. Opens at Pebble.

Which isn’t to say Clint Eastwood’s course hasn’t produced its moments.

In 1972, Nicklaus hit a 1-iron on the par-3 17th, hitting the pin on the way
to a birdie that gave him the second leg of the Grand Slam.

Ten years later, Tom Watson chipped in from the rough on No. 17—one of the
most iconic shots in golf—to pull away from Nicklaus for his sixth of eight
majors. (The spot from where Watson hit the ball no longer exists, washed away
by a storm that hit shortly after that year’s Open.)

In 1992, Tom Kite used his then-unique lob wedge to chip in on Pebble’s most
famous hole—the much-posterized, 100-yard par-3 seventh.

Woods? Maybe the most memorable shot was one of the very few he missed in
2000, a snap hook into the ocean on No. 18, when he had come out early Saturday
morning to finish his second round. A string of expletives followed, and then a
weekend in which he redefined what golfing excellence means.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play well, and I wouldn’t be surprised
if he won,” said Rory McIlroy, who got his first PGA Tour win last month by
firing a 62 in the final round at Quail Hollow.

Whether it’s Woods, Phil Mickelson or someone winning their first major, the
way Lucas Glover did last year, Pebble Beach always paints a pretty picture.

“I’ve got to say, it’s one of the most scenic places in the world to play
golf,” Stenson said. “Just some fabulous holes. Great views. You can see all
the wildlife in the sea.”

And sometimes a few golf balls, too.

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Golf Betting – Tiger Favored in Next Two Majors

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Golf bettors know that their favorite philanderer, Tiger Woods, who, if he had his wish, would not only make most gossip columnists disappear, not only would have eight women or more in his hotel room every night, but would also be wiping up the rest of the PGA Tour field right now. He’s got a chance with these next two majors, which are being played at locations where he has just about lapped everybody else. At the U.S. Open he is +600, and at the British Open he is +200, and in both of those events he is the betting favorite.

Tiger Woods – Total Majors Won in 2010

  • No Majors -140
  • One Major +180
  • Two Majors +500
  • Three Majors +2000

We see that Woods’ results this season have been somewhat mixed. He did come back to competition (he had only been out for five months) with a tie for fourth place at the masters in Augusta, which was obviously very credible but also in something of a controlled atmosphere.

He then failed to make the cut at Quail Hollow after shooting an abysmal second-round 79, and withdrew from the Players Championship with what was reported as a neck injury. Along the way he and swing coach Hank Haney parted ways. Then in the Memorial, he tied for 19th. That’s his last activity before the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach next week.

That doesn’t appear to be the kind of form that would give a lot of bettors confidence in laying down money on this prop, or on any bet involving Woods winning one of the upcoming individual majors. However, it does look as though thing are set up rather nicely for him to contend in each of the next two.

Betting Odds – To Win 2010 U.S. Open

July 17-20 – Pebble Beach, CA
(Top dozen on list)

  • Tiger Woods +600
  • Phil Mickelson +700
  • Ernie Els +1400
  • Lee Westwood +1400
  • Padraig Harrington +1500
  • Steve Stricker +2000
  • Geoff Ogilvy +2000
  • Retief Goosen +2500
  • Paul Casey +2500
  • Ian Poulter +2800
  • Camilo Villegas +2800
  • Jim Furyk +2800

Woods is listed as a +600 proposition in the betting odds to win the U.S. Open next week, and that makes him the betting favorite in the field. It really doesn’t matter how much he’s accomplished or not accomplished as of late, he is going to be the betting favorite just about every time he tees it up.

Woods won the U.S. Open the last time it was played at Pebble Beach, in 2000, registering a score that was 15 shots better than the rest of the field. He also won the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am there the same year. In the last two years, that particular tournament has been won by Dustin Johnson, who is at +3500 in the Golf betting to win this year’s U.S. Open.

Some of the players among the top dozen betting favorites have skipped the St. Jude Classic in Memphis this weekend, while five of them are using it to tune up their game. Lee Westwood (+1400 in the U.S. Open betting) is ranked third in the world, but like a lot of players on the cusp of greatness, he understands that he can win all the tournaments around the globe, but it means nothing in terms of his legacy if he does not put some major championships in his column.

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Golf Odds – Can Two-Time Winner Toms Catch Magic in Memphis?

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Golf bettors who like to follow past performances of golfers as they prepare to handicap tournaments can only come to one conclusion about David Toms – that he has a way with the TPC Southwind course in Memphis, site of the St. Jude Classic since 1989.

He has won the event twice, and in fact is one of only two back-to-winners they have ever seen in the tournament (the other being Lee Trevino).

As Toms tees it up on Thursday to try and win for a third time, one of the questions is whether he can catch magic again in Memphis.

The other is whether he can be successful in the head-to-head betting proposition for the tourney against Retief Goosen, the two-time U.S. Open champion, who will be going after his third title in THAT event next week.

Toms is the golf betting favorite at -135, with Goosen at +105.

St. Jude Classic

TPC Southwind – Memphis, TN – June 10-13

TV Schedule

  • Thursday 3-6 PM ET – Golf Channel
  • Friday 8:30-11:30 PM ET – Golf Channel
  • Saturday 3-6 PM ET – CBS
  • Sunday 3-6 PM ET – CBS

Tournament Golf Wagering Matchup

DAVID TOMS -135

RETIEF GOOSEN +105

David Toms has scored eight top tens in major championships, including a win at the 2001 PGA (where he shot 15 under par), and he has won twelve times over the course of his career, but he has not tasted champagne lately.

In fact, he has not won a Tour event since the beginning of the 2006 season, when he captured the Sony Open in Hawaii. Two of his PGA Tour wins have come in the St. Jude Classic, and they happened back-to-back (2003 and 2004) on this very course.

There have been no top tens this season for Toms, and he has missed the cut in four of his 12 appearances, although his best tournament effort was his last one, as he finished tied for 13th at Colonial in the Crowne Plaza Invitational. Among his seven top-ten finishes last year was a tie for the runner-up spot right there in Memphis.

He was also third in 2007, tenth in 2006, second in 2005 and fourth in 2002. In other words, he’s got the place pretty much clocked. At 20/1 betting odds to win the tourney outright, he may be worth somebody’s adventure.

Goosen is 41 years old, which means he should have a lot of solid golf left. He is clearly a guy who likes to tailor his tournament schedule around playing major championships, and the effects have showed. In his career, the South African has been a top-ten finisher in majors 14 times, with the 2001 and 2004 U.S. Open titles to his credit. A tie for 38th place in the Masters this year shouldn’t deter him too much.

His win at the African Open last January was one of two tournaments he won last year, the other being the Transitions Championship here in the U.S. So far in 2010, you can’t argue to much with what he has done in the States.

In eight events, he has posted five top-ten finishes, including fifth place in defense of his Transitions title and a tie for fourth at Arnold Palmer’s tournament.

At the St. Jude Classic, Goosen has not had a great deal of success. He tied for 29th in 2009, missed the cut the year before, and tied for 30th in 2007. Goosen, who is currently 17th in the Official World Golf Rankings, is +3000 to win the tournament, and he is also at +325 in the “Rest of the World” betting proposition.

He is showing better form right now, but Toms, even at 62nd in the world, can be referred to as an acknowledged master on this course, He gets our nod in this betting prop.

JAY’S BETTING PLAY: TOMS (-135) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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