Big hockey betting matchup in the Windy City as the NHL’s top ranked team, the Washington Capitals, heads in to the United Center to take on the #2 team in the West the Chicago Blackhawks.  The Caps are running away with the Eastern Conference, leading second place Pittsburgh by 14 points.  At this juncture, the only real goal before the playoffs begin is the Presidents’ Trophy for the NHL’s best record.  The importance of this to a hockey team is debatable.  In theory, its important because it guarantees home ice advantage throughout the playoffs.  In practice, however, its not exactly been an express route to the Stanley Cup–since the league started awarding the Presidents’ Trophy after the 1985-86 season only 7 of the 23 winners have won the Cup (there’s only 23 due to no winner during the lockout year). Since the San Jose Sharks won the trophy last year and got bumped in the first round by Anaheim, they may be happy to concede it to the Caps as long as they win the West.

Chicago, meanwhile, is in a ferocious battle with the San Jose Sharks for the Western Conference title.  The Blackhawks trail the Sharks by 3 points and have a 6 point lead over Phoenix and Vancouver who are tied for third.  It’s not like the Hawks have been playing bad hockey–they’ve won 7 of 10, but are just managing to keep pace with San Jose.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS VS. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS–9:35 AM PACIFIC/12:35 PM EASTERN

We’ve talked about the Blackhawks a good deal during the NHL season and have used them mostly as an Over play.  We’re going to do the opposite here.  First of all, depending on the sportsbook the total on this game is posted at either 7 UN (Bookmaker, DSI) or 6′ OV (Pinnacle, BetPhoenix).  Typically, when you’ve got a choice between which total you’ll play the best move is to play the one with the better moneyline price.  So if you like the Under you want to play at BetPhoenix which has the total at 6′ UN +115 at the time I’m writing this.  There are some exceptions to this rule, but they usually involve the ‘key number’  in hockey totals which is the #5.  The average NHL score is typically fractionally over or fractionally under 5.5 which is why you see so many 5′ goal totals.  In some circumstances, its worth ‘paying’ for the extra half goal if given a choice between playing Over 5 or Under 5′.  For most other totals, the half goal difference isn’t as statistically significant and over the long haul you’ll make more money taking the better moneyline.  You’ll occasionally get bit, but as with everything else in sports betting the only way to win consistently is to keep your eye on the best longterm value.

Washington has the best home record in the league, but they’re nowhere near as successful on the road.  At home, they’re 26-8 with only four losses in regulation all year.  On the road, they’re 19-15.  Chicago is also a very good home team–they’ve got the best record in the West on their own ice and are second in the league to Washington.  They’re just a -120 favorite here, which is the smallest chalk price they’ve had at home all season.  Even against San Jose–a team with a much better road record than Washington–the Blackhawks were a -150 choice.  This is due in large part to Washington’s status as a ‘public’ team, while the Blackhawks aren’t exactly as well known to the casual sports betting enthusiast.  The value price we’re getting with Chicago at home is enough to put me on the Blackhawks.

But that’s not the only reason–the Blackhawks are much better defensively.  Washington is ranked #1 in scoring offense with a 3.85 goals per game average.  The Blackhawks are a very respectable 4th with 3.19 goals per game–along with the Caps one of only 5 teams in the NHL that averages more than 3 goals per game.  Defensively, its a different story–Washington is tied with Ottawa for the #16 scoring defense in the NHL allowing 2.76 goals per game. Chicago is #2 allowing 2.39 goals per game and is mere fractions behind #1 ranked New Jersey at 2.36 goals per game.  An even more significant number may be the Blackhawks shots on goal against–they rank #1 in shots allowed at 24.3 shots per game, more than 3 fewer than the second place team in this catagory (New Jersey).  Here’s the *really* scary thing about this Blackhawks team–they’re also #1 in shots on goal *for* per game with 34.3.

So what does all of this mean?  The Blackhawks are a scary, scary team that’s what.  There might not be a more electrifying player in the sport than Washington’s Alex Ovechkin, but from top to bottom Chicago may be the more talented squad.  For the purposes of this matchup, the Blackhawks simply have more weapons.  They have the offensive firepower to hang with Washington in a shootout, but why would they?  They’ve got a big edge defensively, have a pair of goalies ranked in the top ten in goals against average (Cristobal Huet is expected to get the start here) and should be able to take Washington out of their game by limiting their scoring chances.  These teams haven’t played much in recent years, but 6 of the L8 head to head in Chicago have gone Under the total.  And when it comes right down to it, this game is much more important to Chicago than to Washington–not because they need to beat the Capitals but because they need to keep pace with San Jose who plays Sunday night against an Anaheim team they’ve beaten like a drum this season (5 wins in 5 games).

PLAY CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS -120 OVER WASHINGTON CAPITALS
PLAY CHICAGO/WASHINGTON UNDER 6′ +115

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